2020–2021: Graduate hiring slowed significantly during COVID. Paused and delayed intakes created a gap in the pipeline at junior levels. (Context: the Big 4 typically account for ~20–30% of ACA/ACCA trainees, so changes at that level have a wider market impact.)
2022–2023: Firms corrected aggressively. Hiring volumes increased (often 30–40%), in many cases with lower entry thresholds and reliance on predicted grades. This was done on the assumption that attrition would return to normal levels. It didn't.
2024: The lag effect began to show. Progression slowed at the Part-Qualified level, fewer Semi-Senior roles came to market, and we started to hear consistent feedback around variability in quality, with firms focusing heavily on retaining top performers.
2025: A quieter correction phase. Hiring slowed, internal movement reduced, and we noticed a high volume of redundancies for employees on visas. AI began to feature more prominently in conversations around junior and mid-level work. Big 4 Partner pay hit record highs, with an 11% increase averaging around £800,000.
2026: KPMG's proposed cuts are largely focused at Assistant Manager (newly qualified) level — where the pipeline has become congested following the over-hiring of previous years. This isn't a collapse in demand for accountants or AI taking over. The result is a bottleneck at the Newly Qualified level.
What this means for candidates: Overall activity is lower, but so is candidate movement. That's reducing competition in many processes and making hiring decisions more deliberate. Over the past six months, we've typically seen salary increases in the region of 15–25% for candidates who make well-timed moves. This isn't an easy market. But it remains a functional one — particularly for candidates who are selective and intentional in their approach.